NCCP - Western North Carolina Hurricane Helene Impact Assessment

Overview

This project focuses on assessing the impacts of Hurricane Helene on Western North Carolina. The assessment includes a high-level analysis of storm impacts, ranking of affected counties, pre-Helene conditions, and key considerations for recovery and future resiliency efforts.

Context

The analysis leveraged data from multiple authoritative sources, including NOAA, NWS, NC State Climate Office, Duke Energy, NC Forest Service, and NC Department of Agriculture. We validated affected areas and conducted a lookback study using Census and NC Commerce Department data.

Impact Summary

Most Impacted Counties: Buncombe, McDowell, Henderson, Rutherford, Transylvania, Polk, Yancey, Mitchell, Avery
Damage Types:
- Power Damage: Severe damage to infrastructure with complex repair zones identified.
- Forest Damage: Six counties suffered heaviest damage, notably McDowell (130,805 acres) and Buncombe (89,440 acres).
- Flooding & Landslides: Especially in Yancey, Avery, and McDowell Counties.

Lookback Analysis

Pre-Helene, counties exhibited varying levels of resiliency based on:

Demographics: Some counties had high renter concentrations and aging populations.
Income & Poverty Trends: Mixed income growth rates and poverty decline patterns.
Housing Indicators: Several counties experienced slow home value growth and high rent burdens.
Business Composition: High ratio of small businesses (<$500k annual sales) in severely impacted areas like Mitchell and Yancey suggests vulnerability.

Business Impact

Businesses were mapped based on size and geographical concentration.
Areas with high small business ratios are considered less resilient.
Infrastructure and power outages heavily affected small businesses, especially in rural and mountainous regions.

Go-Forward Considerations

Data Buildout: Infrastructure resilience, economic health, vacancy rates, and migration patterns post-Helene.
Program Identification: Map available federal, state, and local funding programs.
Strategic Actions:
- Support vulnerable populations.
- Revitalize local businesses.
- Improve resiliency against future disasters.
- Implement anti-fraud measures.